April 26th, 2021
Weekly Forecast 25 - 30 April
The massive bullish rally of 2020 slowed down and ended with a bearish divergence, based on the moving averages of the MACD indicator on the daily chart. After this the price flipped and created lower lows and gaining momentum on the bearish side successfully forming new lower highs and lower lows. Currently, the price is approaching a key rejection zone on the daily time frame.
This key rejection zone may be seen on the H4 chart around 1.21150 – 1.21800. We would expect the price to enter this key zone, slow down, form bearish divergence on the MACD and create a corrective move down.
Key rejection zone followed by bearish MACD histogram divergence in the Weekly time frame indicates that the Oil is likely under bearish corrective move.
Bearish MACD moving averages divergence on the daily time frame followed by lower swing low strengthening the bearish view and we would expect the current corrective rally to end and a new bearish leg to develop.
It appears that there is strong support from the H4 chart creating another bearish divergence on the MACD and making lower lows as well.
On the 1H time frame, it is possible to see a bearish pattern of lower highs lower lows developing. While the corrective move holds below 62.7-63.9, a move further down could be expected.
After an impressive rally to the upside, the buyers got blocked at prices which are holding a key resistance zone (87.13 – 89.22) on the weekly. This could be a strong indication that a bearish corrective move is due.
The last 3 of 4 candles on the weekly time frame create lower highs lowers lows, indicating bearish hold.
A bearish divergence on the MACD and new swing low on the daily time frame indicates that a bearish correction is likely developing.
On the H4 chart the sellers gained momentum by making lower highs, lower lows pattern. It's possible to see a key rejection zone based on the key levels from the daily and H4, so it could be expected to see the price completing the corrective move here. As long as this key resistance zone (87.5 – 88) holds, the price is expected to be under bearish pressure and it could be assumed that the sellers will take the control once more.