25 August 2023
The Future of Forex: Leveraging Artificial Intelligence in Currency Trading
The rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in recent years cannot be ignored. Today, it has become a transformative force, extending its influence across many industries. Even in its present form, the invention revolutionises how we work, live, and interact. From education and healthcare to entertainment and transportation, AI is restructuring conventional practices and opens up thrilling new opportunities.
AI has also been making waves in the forex world. This is mainly attributable to its ability to assess vast amounts of data, spot patterns, and forecast future trends, potentially finding lucrative trading opportunities. The technology has decreased the need for manual intervention by automating different elements of forex trading.
Automated trading systems, or forex robots, are a good case in point. They can help traders monitor the market 24/7, place trades based on set strategies, and manage risks on your behalf.
But how exactly does AI work in algorithmic trading, risk management, and predictive analytics? Are there real-world examples of AI use in forex trading? And what are the ethical considerations and pitfalls experienced in AI usage? All of these questions are answered here.
AI in Forex
The use of AI in forex trading has been one of the most vital breakthroughs in the industry. With advanced skills in pattern recognition, data analysis, decision-making, and more, AI technologies have totally changed how people trade. Here are the areas you can use AI while trading currencies in forex markets:
Many factors, such as market sentiment, economic indicators, and geopolitical events, affect the forex market. Assessing and interpreting all this information yourself is overwhelming and time-consuming. On the contrary, AI can scan through big data sets quickly, discover patterns, and make forecasts based on real-time and historical data.
AI usually depends on machine learning (training computer models to understand data and make predictions without explicit programming) to forecast forex market trends. In any case, machine algorithms are designed to evaluate price data in the past, technical indicators, chart patterns, etc. The resulting information is then used to spot patterns and trends, hinting how prices will move.
Sentiment analysis is another technique that AI uses in predictive analytics. The process entails extracting and assessing subjective info from sources like news articles, online forums, and social media posts to determine the general mood of traders. This gives you valuable insights regarding how traders are likely to behave so you can fine-tune your trading strategies accordingly.
Algorithmic trading is meant to accelerate trading in the forex market and make it more efficient. The process is characterized by entry and exit points and different sets of actions or rules around identifying risks to help traders execute orders.
AI can be applied in algorithmic trading in various ways. For example, people may utilize it to create algorithms that scan the markets, historical data, breaking news, real-time data, profit/loss ratios, trends, etc. The technology analyzes all these factors in an environment where market conditions constantly change.
And here lies algorithms' big advantage over humans—speed and size. When you manually look for ideal trades to implement, you may spend much time filtering through the data and establishing whether a prospective trade has the correct features you want. And by the time you complete the analysis and are ready to conduct a trade, the market conditions may have changed.
AI allows you to do everything instantly. What may have taken you minutes or even hours to do, an algorithm developed by AI completes in the blink of an eye. This can be the difference between a profit and a loss.
The algorithms don't just run one at a go; the AI can operate many of them simultaneously, enabling you to cover many different positions and strategies concurrently. One of the factors that make this possible is parallel processing.
Parallel processing is where algorithms are designed to operate side by side, taking advantage of modern computers or servers' processing power. As a result, they can assess data and make trading decisions simultaneously for many currencies or strategies. The possibilities you can attain are ostensibly endless by leveraging AI in algorithmic trading.
AI has become an essential part of risk management in forex. It is often used in formulating risk management approaches that assist traders in mitigating their risks. For instance, the AI can create stop-loss orders that automatically exit a trade if the price reaches a specified point. The technology is also vital in developing position-sizing strategies that enable you to regulate your capital exposure based on your risk tolerance and account size.
Ever heard of AI-based risk management systems? These tools evaluate historical data, market conditions, and news sentiment to gauge the risk specific currency pairs carry. Consequently, the systems let you make informed trading decisions, reducing the chances of substantial losses. By offering real-time risk assessment, AI enables you to adjust your positions and execute suitable risk mitigation strategies.
AI aids traders in correlation analysis as well. You can rely on it to evaluate the relationship between different currency pairs. So it's easier to tell which pairs move in similar directions and which take opposite paths. As a result, you avoid working with highly correlated pairs in your trading strategies and minimize overexposure to the same market movements.
What's the end result? You are protected from possible magnified losses from concentrated positions, leading to efficient risk management.
Many companies are using AI, thanks to its ability to make trading easier and more effective. Below are some of the real-world examples where AI has been utilized in forex trading for gains.
A Japan-based media company, Nikkei, has organised a quarterly "dollar-yen derby" for over 30 years. This is where readers and market analysts attempt to forecast the exchange rate for the following month. The organization first integrated predictive analytics and AI in forex trading in competition 2018.
Interestingly, the tool provided the most accurate predictions for the exchange rate, thrashing hundreds of readers and around ten analysts. According to Nikkei, its AI technology is trained on data from its database of commodity prices, articles, long-term dollar-yen trends, and other indicators. This enables its software to forecast future exchange rates between the two currencies.
The Bank of China
On March 2020, the Bank of China unveiled their AI-powered currency price prediction app via the Refinitiv Eikon desktop. Known as “DeepFX”, the tool applies deep learning technology to foretell how prices of the main foreign exchange currency pairs will move in the short term. The bank has been using it to forecast forex trade signals in 5-minute timeframes and to display back-test results within ten days.
This bank has been at the forefront of digital transformation in the UK financial sector. In 2021, it launched a new chatbot that leverages AI to help customers to determine and analyze the prices of their foreign exchange options.
Named Sympricot, the chatbot utilizes natural language processing to collect and evaluate info on market pricing, colour, and liquidity. One of the advantages of this technology is that it allows users to access info that was not easy to obtain previously. Examples include relative value analytics, event weightings, and volatility time-series charting.
Citadel Securities is an American marketing firm that relies heavily on high-frequency trading. It makes a significant contribution to daily trading volumes across different exchanges globally. The company uses AI algorithms to implement thousands of orders in fractions of a second. This gives it a competitive advantage in the forex market, where speed is essential.
Also known as Ren Tech, this hedge fund company engages in systematic AI trading. The technology normally helps it to forecast price shifts in easily traded currencies. The AI models are designed to assess as much data as possible and then identify non-random movements to make forecasts.
Two Sigma Investments
AI is integral to Two Sigma's (a hedging firm) trading strategy. The company creates sophisticated algorithms that enable it to assess and obtain insights from enormous and varied data sets. This approach and high-frequency trading methods allow Two Sigma to identify subtle patterns in market data and implement trades at lightning speed. As a result, the firm can maintain performance consistency in the vibrant forex market.
Ethics and Challenges
There is a need to ensure that AI use in the forex market is done fairly and responsibly. To achieve this, players should adhere to the following ethical considerations:
Traders should be transparent while applying AI in forex trading. It's your duty to let others know how you use the technology to your advantage, including making trading decisions and strategies, etc. This way, you can create trust between your clients or partners and make informed decisions that benefit all parties involved.
This is the state of being responsible for a system, its behaviour, and its prospective impacts. As a trader, you should be ready to own the outcomes of AI use in developing trading strategies, forecasting, risk management, and more. Accountability also means actively managing the technology properly to help minimize the risks of bias, error, or manipulation.
Undoubtedly, those who use AI for trading have an advantage over those who don't. As such, they will likely make more profits, manage their risks better, trade faster, etc. So, how can fairness be promoted?
The solution lies in offering all traders equal or fair access to AI technology. This can entail ensuring that AI resources like analysis apps, algorithmic trading software, plugins, etc., are easily affordable to the average trader. Everyone can participate equitably by levelling the playing field, ensuring that power is not concentrated among specific traders.
AI can bring biased decision-making. It occurs when AI trading decisions are made using biased data or erroneous assumptions leading to skewed outcomes.
In this regard, bias mitigation focuses on eliminating biases to promote more accurate results. It's important to make it your duty to choose data carefully and try to adjust algorithms to decrease the impact of biases. This way, your forecasts and other trading parameters will be more accurate and increase your chances of been successful.
By now, you know that AI relies heavily on data to make trading decisions. This data can either be personal or from the market. Regardless of the source, it's your responsibility to handle this data properly by adhering to industry data protection regulations. This goes a long way in protecting the confidentiality of sensitive info and enhancing trust among stakeholders.
Adherence to set regulations
As they relate to AI use in the forex market, regulations are meant to ensure that people trade within legal limits. This serves to prevent unfair advantage, market manipulations, and illegal trading. Market players must adjust to changing legal structures to enhance fair and ethical trading practices.
Oversight by humans
The use of AI without supervision by human traders could be detrimental. As much as the system facilitates better trading, people must supervise its workings.
Supervision can entail checking its accuracy levels, gauging whether its strategies adapt to evolving market conditions, and making vital decisions overlooked by AI. This ensures the system's decisions are based on your risk tolerance and trading goals.
While AI has revolutionized forex trading and brought many benefits, it still presents several challenges. Here are some examples.
This challenge is common in forecasting. It happens when an algorithm performs well on training data but causes poor performance on new market data. In other words, overfitting can cause the AI to generate false signals and wrong predictions, leading to losses.
In most cases, AI algorithms are perceived as black boxes since their forecasts are based on complicated mathematical models which aren't easy to interpret.
Transparency is vital in the forex market, so traders may be reluctant to depend solely on AI predictions without comprehending the basic reasoning. Unfortunately, there is no way of creating easily explainable AI models in forex forecasting, which may discourage many from using the technology.
Possible job displacement
There are rising concerns that AI use in forex trading could potentially lead to job losses. The need for human traders may reduce as AI-driven systems flood the market, possibly leading to employment losses. This shift may negatively impact entry-level roles and increase obstacles for individuals wanting to begin a forex trading career.
High starting costs
The implementation cost of AI in forex trading may be quite high initially, particularly for lone traders and small businesses. Developing and using AI-driven tools and algorithms is an expensive affair. That's not all. You will likely be burdened with expenses associated with maintaining, upgrading, and supporting the technology.
AI technology is prone to technical failures, including malfunctions, bugs, and internet connection problems. These can interfere with your trading activities and cause losses due to missed opportunities, wrong computations, or unplanned trades. Having a backup plan is thus essential to reduce these risks and protect your funds.
Overdependence on technology
The best thing about AI technology is that it makes trading easier, faster, and more effective. However, there's always the risk of excessive dependence, which is not good.
This is because you are less likely to gain critical thinking and analytical capabilities as you rely on AI more to make decisions for you. You might even experience severe repercussions, especially when the AI faces technical problems or breakdowns, and you don't know what to do.
Most traders working with AI-based algorithms lack adequate algo-trading functionality expertise. The model requires immense knowledge of deep learning systems, which the average trader may lack. Therefore, it becomes difficult for users to monitor the effectiveness of their trading.
Although AI has benefitted the forex trading community substantially, malicious parties have emerged that constantly seek to exploit traders for selfish gains. These people tend to sell faulty AI-based signals or systems to unsuspecting traders. It's easier for traders to fall prey to these scammers, especially if they are promised huge gains.
AI technology is here to stay, and any trader who ethically embraces it can enjoy its many benefits. These include but are not limited to reduced human error, improved trading, better risk management, optimization of trading approaches, and efficient forecasting. The future of AI in the forex industry is bright. As time passes, we can expect this innovation to become more efficient. The technology will increasingly refine trading strategies, reduce data bias, offer more accurate real-data insights, and adjust to changing market dynamics.
Disclaimer: Any information presented is for general education and informational purposes hence, not intended to be and does not constitute investment or trading advice or recommendation. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by M4Markets that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
It does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Any information relating to past performance of an investment does not necessarily guarantee future performance.
Trinota Markets (Global) Limited does not give warranty as to the accuracy and completeness of this information.
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